The latest analysis of UEFA Champions League 2022-23 rounds

18 Oct 2022Football
The latest analysis of UEFA Champions League  2022-23 rounds

With the ongoing UEFA Champions League season, every one of us gets more excited to know more about matches, predictions and statistics.


What do we know after the 4th round of the Champions League? Who’s the biggest winner, and who’s the biggest loser?

champions League
Champions League


The great emotions related to the fourth Champions League group stage series are behind us. Five teams have already progressed to the UCL’s knockout stage: Bayern Munich, Manchester City, Real Madrid, SSC Napoli and Club Brugge. Others have entirely lost their chances or complicated their situation. 

Our experts looked at all the groups and their possible scenarios to help you to choose the best betting strategy for the upcoming UCL games.

Let’s follow the current situation in all groups one by one.


Group A

1 Napoli 4 4 0 0 17 4 13 12
2 Liverpool 4 3 0 1 12 6 6 9
3 Ajax 4 1 0 3 8 12 -4 3
4 Rangers 4 0 0 4 1 16 -15 0


We will surely see Napoli doing great next spring. They have been performing excellently this season.

The club from below the Vesuvius has won all four matches and has secured its promotion to the 1/8 finals. The situation behind the Italian team is also quite clear.

Liverpool has not assured their progression yet, but only a cataclysmic event could deprive them of it. All “The Reds” need to do now is to grab one point in their last two matches. If they achieve that against Ajax Amsterdam (away game), they can celebrate without looking back.


Matchday 5 – October 26, 2022,


SSC Napoli vs Rangers FC

Ajax vs Liverpool


Matchday 6 – November 1, 2022,


Liverpool vs SSC Napoli

Rangers FC vs Ajax


Group B

1 Club Brugge 4 3 1 0 7 0 7 10
2 Porto 4 2 0 2 6 6 0 6
3 Atletico Madrid 4 1 1 2 2 5 -3 4
4 Bayer Leverkusen 4 1 0 3 2 6 -4 3


If someone told us that Club Brugge would jump to the knockout stage after the fourth round, we would not have bet on it.

Meanwhile, the Belgian champions can already prepare to compete in the 1/8 finals after the draw with Atletico (0:0).

The battle for the second qualification spot is still on. FC Porto has a slight advantage (6 points) ahead of Atletico (4 points) and Bayer Leverkusen (3 points).

However, the Portuguese team has a demanding schedule. Fc Porto will still play the group leader away and face Atletico Madrid at home in the last round. 


Matchday 5 – October 26, 2022,


Club Brugge vs FC Porto

Atletico Madrid vs Bayer Leverkusen


Matchday 6 – November 1, 2022,


FC Porto vs Atletico Madrid

Bayer Leverkusen vs Club Brugge


Group C

1 Bayern Munich 4 4 0 0 13 2 11 12
2 Inter Milan 4 2 1 1 6 5 1 7
3 Barcelona 4 1 1 2 8 7 1 4
4 Viktoria Plzen 4 0 0 4 3 16 -13 0


This is another group with a team that secured its participation in the knockout stage of the Champions League. 

Bayern confidently won the away game against Viktoria Plzen (4:2). They now have 12 points after four rounds. The Bavarians are also very close to securing the top spot in the group.

The big surprise, however, is what is happening behind the Munich club.

Barcelona, strengthened last summer, was supposed to fight for the most significant laurels this season but is likely to drop out of the group.

What will be enough for Inter to advance (7 points) and simultaneously eliminate Barcelona (4 points)? The crucial fact here is that Inter, which has the better balance of direct matches (1:0 and 3:3), will be ranked higher in the event of an equal number of points.

If Barcelona wins their last two games (against Bayern and Viktoria Plzeň), Inter needs at least three points to advance. Noteworthy, they will play at home against Viktoria, the weakest team in the group. 

If Barcelona wins four points in the remaining matches against Bayern and Viktoria, Inter needs only one point to advance.

Barcelona’s three points (or less) in the last two games will automatically make the ‘Blaugrana’ say goodbye to the UCL.


Matchday 5 – October 26, 2022,


Inter vs Viktoria Plzen

Barcelona vs Bayern


Matchday 6 – November 1, 2022,


Bayern vs Inter

Viktoria Plzen vs FC Barcelona


Group D

1 Tottenham Hotspur 4 2 1 1 5 4 1 7
2 Marseille 4 2 0 2 6 4 2 6
3 Sporting Lisbon 4 2 0 2 6 6 0 6
4 Eintracht Frankfurt 4 1 1 2 3 6 -3 4


This time, we are looking at a group in which everything is still open. No one has yet secured their progression to the knockout stage, and each of the four clubs still has a chance to progress. Eintracht is closing the stake, but they are not in a lost position either.

Leader Tottenham can already secure promotion to the 1/8 finals in the next round. If Tottenham wins and the team from France beats Eintracht, Marseille will also get its pass. All the ‘Roosters’ need to do is to win at home against Sporting, which is very likely.



Matchday 5 – October 26, 2022,


Tottenham vs Sporting

Eintracht vs Olympique Marseille


Matchday 6 – November 1, 2022,


Sporting vs Eintracht Frankfurt

Olympique Marseille vs Tottenham


Group E

1 Chelsea 4 2 1 1 6 2 4 7
2 Red Bull Salzburg 4 1 3 0 4 3 1 6
3 AC Milan 4 1 1 2 4 7 -3 4
4 Dinamo Zagreb 4 1 1 2 3 5 -2 4


Another group where everything is open. Only three points separate the leading Chelsea and closing group table AC Milan and Dinamo Zagreb. Salzburg is among them, losing one spot to “The Blues”. So the situation looks very interesting.

Of course, Graham Potter’s players are on the pole. They only need to succeed in the next meeting with the Austrian champions to win the promotion.

Milan also has everything in its hands. If the Rossoneri win the last two games against Dinamo and Salzburg, they will surely advance to the knockout stage.


Matchday 5 – October 25, 2022,


Salzburg vs Chelsea

Dinamo Zagreb vs AC Milan


Matchday 6 – November 2, 2022,


Chelsea vs Dinamo Zagreb

AC Milan vs Salzburg


Group F

1 Real Madrid 4 3 1 0 8 2 6 10
2 RB Leipzig 4 2 0 2 6 7 -1 6
3 Shakhtar Donetsk 4 1 2 1 7 5 2 5
4 Celtic 4 0 1 3 2 9 -7 1


Another of the teams, confident of the promotion, is Real Madrid. They took the draw against Shakhtar in Warsaw with a throw to the tape. Antonio Ruediger’s goal meant Real Madrid would enter the top sixteen games. They are five points ahead of the third in the group, Shakhtar. However, Ukrainians are still playing with the second in the group Leipzig. Someone here will certainly lose points (maybe both teams?).

The Celts have lost their chances for a further promotion already.

Who will take second place? Just someone from the two – Shakhtar or RB Leipzig.


Matchday 5 – October 25, 2022,


Celtic vs Shakhtar

RB Leipzig vs Real Madrid


Matchday 6 – November 2, 2022,


Real Madrid vs Celtic

Shakhtar vs RB Leipzig


Group G

1 Manchester City 4 3 1 0 11 1 10 10
2 Borussia Dortmund 4 2 1 1 9 4 5 7
3 Sevilla 4 0 2 2 2 9 -7 2
4 Copenhagen 4 0 2 2 0 8 -8 2

Pep Guardiola may also have peace of mind before the last two group-stage matches. His Manchester City will definitely play in the 1/8 finals because the two weakest teams in the field – Sevilla and FC Copenhagen are eight points behind.

Borussia Dortmund is also very close to the knockout stage. A draw in one of their remaining two games is almost enough to go further. Even if Borussia loses its last two matches, it might still promote them.

The Danes and the Spaniards will probably fight for third place and the game in the Europa League.


Matchday 5 – October 25, 2022,


Sevilla vs FC Copenhagen

Borussia Dortmund vs Manchester City


Matchday 6 – November 2, 2022, 


Manchester City vs Sevilla

FC Copenhagen vs Borussia Dortmund


Group H


1 Benfica 4 2 2 0 6 3 3 8
2 Paris Saint-Germain 4 2 2 0 7 4 3 8
3 Juventus 4 1 0 3 5 7 -2 3
4 Maccabi Haifa 4 1 0 3 4 8 -4 3


One of the biggest disappointments of this edition of the Champions League is the disastrous disposition of Juventus. The “Old Lady” scored three points after four rounds (similar to Maccabi Haifa) and is five points behind PSG and Benfica. At the moment, they have very little chance of advancing to the knockout stage. It seems, therefore, that the teams from France and Portugal will be promoted here, and they will fight each other for the number one place.

In what situation will Juventus be boosted further?

The chances are actually only mathematical. To start with, Juve must win their last two matches against PSG and Benfica, hoping one of these teams stumbles in their rivalry with Maccabi (ideally lose). In the event of a draw – you will have to look at the balance of direct matches between Juventus and the other club that also scores nine points. What are the chances of such a scenario? Illusory.


Matchday 5 – October 25, 2022,


PSG vs Maccabi Haifa

Benfica vs Juventus


Matchday 6 – November 2, 2022, 


Juventus vs PSG

Maccabi Haifa vs Benfica


Champions League Summary 


In the UEFA Champions League, the group tables are not very impressive. We have four teams in a group, which does not complicate our calculations, and it is very easy to recognize the situation in which each team is. We must remember that the top two places get promoted, and the 3rd team in the group “drops” to the Europa League. Therefore, it is worth fighting for this 3rd place because, in addition to money for points, the clubs can still play in the Europa League.


Online football betting on the UCL games is available almost all year round. The group stage takes place between September and December. After the winter break, the UCL returns in February with a knockout stage, which ends with a grand final, usually played in the second half of May. As early as the turn of July and August, betting odds are available at and, therefore, free tips for qualifying matches.


Here are a few statistics for you to consider when placing your bets: 


In the last five seasons of the Champions League


  • The home team won 48% of the games, while the visitors won 29%. The remaining 23% ended in draws.
  • In 49% of UCL matches, we saw more than 2.5 goals. 29% ended with more than 3.5 goals, and only 7% saw goalless draws.
  • 7% of the matches ended with the results 1:1 and 1:0. We saw the results 0:1 and 2:1 in 8% of cases.
  • 40% of the games ended in a draw after the first half. In 32% of cases, no goals were scored in the first half of the game.


The last two remaining encounters of the Champions League group stage will take place on the 25-26 of October and the 1-2 of November, so have fun and bet wisely at your favourite betting site,

Published: October 2022

By: Rafa

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